The Federal Reserve began a two-day rate-setting meeting Tuesday ahead of Wednesday's decision, with interest-rate futures assigning more than an 85% probability to a 25-basis-point increase. Such a move would be Chair Kevin Warsh's first hike since taking office and the central bank's first increase in three years. Expectations rose from 72.4% before the latest inflation report after August core CPI increased 0.3% month over month, above the 0.2% consensus estimate, while annual core CPI held at 2.4% and headline inflation remained at 3.4%, above the Fed's 2% target. Oil above $100 a barrel, a 10-year Treasury yield approaching 5% and a 30-year yield at its highest level in more than 22 years added pressure on markets. A Polymarket account with more than $400,000 in cumulative profits separately bought $3.09 million of the outcome that rates would rise 25 basis points, while holding about $3.07 million on the outcome that rates would not be cut by 25 basis points. The newer record identifies that contract as settling after the September 2026 FOMC meeting, creating a timing distinction from the immediate decision described in the older record.