Investors expect Kevin Warsh to begin raising interest rates at the Federal Reserve’s meeting this week, underscoring how sharply the policy outlook has changed since he took over as chairman in May. President Trump spent last year pressing the central bank for rate cuts, but the war with Iran has lasted longer than officials and investors anticipated and pushed energy prices higher. New tariffs have taken effect, while the AI build-out has strained electricity and technology-equipment supply chains, increasing demand faster than the economy’s capacity to meet it. White House National Economic Council director Kevin Hassett said inflation is improving and the Fed does not need to raise rates. He said Trump respects Warsh’s independence and would support the central bank’s decision, while acknowledging that Trump would not be pleased by an increase. A rate decision near the midterm elections could test Warsh’s relationship with the president and the Fed’s perceived political independence.