The Bank of England is expected to keep Bank Rate at 3.75% on September 17 despite oil prices exceeding $100 a barrel, while slowing the annual pace of its gilt-portfolio reduction. Markets assign a 30% probability to a quarter-point rate increase, up from less than 10% at the start of last week, but Governor Andrew Bailey has said a rise would require clearer evidence that higher energy costs are causing sustained domestic inflation pressures. The Monetary Policy Committee is also expected to reduce the planned pace of quantitative tightening to £50 billion from October 2026 through September 2027, from £70 billion in the preceding year. The lower total largely reflects fewer gilts maturing, while projected active sales of £19.5 billion are only slightly below the £21 billion sold in the past 12 months. Long-dated gilt prices have fallen sharply, intensifying scrutiny of how the Bank manages its remaining £895 billion bond-purchase portfolio.