Wall Street is pricing in a quarter-percentage-point Federal Reserve rate hike this week, with investors assigning nearly 90% odds to an increase. The decision would test Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh, who has not offered forward guidance and could become the first Fed chair in modern history to dissent from a majority-backed hike. Macquarie strategists said Warsh is more likely to support an increase than follow the White House's call to keep rates unchanged. Trump has pressed the Fed to lower borrowing costs and threatened a trade embargo if it does not comply. Market pricing reflects the expected move: the 2-year Treasury yield reached 4.61%, more than 1 percentage point above the Fed's 3.5% to 3.75% benchmark target, while the 10-year yield stood at 4.9%. Stocks ended a four-day decline as rate-hike expectations strengthened, though strategists warned that higher yields could undermine equities and delay planned AI investment. Goldman Sachs and UBS have moved their forecasts for a hike to the Fed's Sept. 15-16 meeting. Investors including Truist's Keith Lerner and Schwab Asset Management's Omar Aguilar said the bull market remains supported by technology, earnings, AI spending and a resilient labor market.