Financial markets see a 90% chance that the Federal Reserve will raise its short-term interest rate on Wednesday, its first increase in more than three years, as Chair Kevin Warsh argues inflation has not been sufficiently contained. The move would conflict with President Donald Trump's demand for lower rates and follows renewed oil-price pressure linked to the Iran war, alongside August acceleration in core inflation. The Fed's rate is currently about 3.6%, while traders expect three increases in September, December and March. Higher Treasury yields and mortgage rates have reflected investor concerns about persistent inflation and the central bank's commitment to address it.