Fed rate hike, oil above $108 as Middle East conflict rattles markets

  • Federal Reserve markets expect a Wednesday interest-rate increase.
  • Saudi Arabia’s pipeline closure threatened up to 4% of global crude supply.
  • OpenAI’s Sam Altman said its IPO would likely be delayed until 2027.

Markets widely expect the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates on Wednesday as Brent crude climbed above $108 a barrel after renewed fighting and disruption in the Middle East. Last week’s inflation report offered little reassurance that inflation will return to the Fed’s 2% target soon, with energy costs and persistent service-sector price pressures both drawing concern. The main market question is how much further the central bank will tighten after this week’s move; its quarterly economic and interest-rate projections will be closely watched, with futures pricing up to four hikes. Saudi Arabia’s temporary closure of its East-West pipeline threatened up to 4% of global crude supply, while scheduled talks involving Tehran and other Gulf governments on managing the Strait of Hormuz were postponed. Separately, warnings from OpenAI and Anthropic employees about the risks of rapid artificial-intelligence development prompted calls for a slower pace. OpenAI boss Sam Altman said the company would likely delay its initial public offering to 2027, calling a listing this year ill-advised. AI-linked stocks declined, with Nasdaq futures lower and Asian shares ending down, led by major chipmakers. The MSCI AI basket has gained more than 120% since OpenAI launched ChatGPT in 2022, raising questions about whether any slowdown could affect investment in AI infrastructure such as data centers, chips and computing equipment. Markets were also watching Canada’s August consumer-price data, due at 8:30 a.m. EDT. The latest Morning Bid podcast covered the AI safety warnings, oil’s rise and the prospect of a Fed hike.

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