Markets now assign more than 90% odds to a Federal Reserve interest-rate hike, a sharp reversal from expectations earlier in 2026 for four cuts by July 2027. The shift has pressured bitcoin’s outlook after a 20% monthly gain, with analysts highlighting elevated Treasury yields, oil above $100 a barrel, inflation concerns and persistent outflows from spot bitcoin ETFs. Billionaire investor Stanley Druckenmiller, a mentor to Kevin Warsh and Scott Bessent and a close ally of both, said rate cuts are no longer needed and criticized Fed officials who describe policy as restrictive. Traders will focus on the September decision, Warsh’s press conference and the updated Summary of Economic Projections. Analysts identify $75,000-$76,000, or specifically $75,500, as important near-term bitcoin support, with $70,000 a possible downside target and $80,000 the first major upside test.