TLT hits record low as 10-year Treasury yield tests 5% despite Treasury buyback effort

  • TLT fell 0.3% to about $80.63 as the 10-year Treasury yield tested 5.01% before easing to 4.96%.
  • The Treasury bought back $5.2 billion of long-dated debt, while Brent crude reached nearly $110 a barrel.
  • Markets priced in a 25-basis-point Federal Reserve rate increase on Wednesday amid persistent inflation concerns.

The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) fell 0.3% to about $80.63 on Monday, a record low and more than 55% below its 2020 peak above $170, as the 10-year Treasury yield briefly reached 5.01% before easing to 4.96%. Reports variously described 5.01% as the highest level in 19 years and the first move above 5% since 2023; another account said it was the highest closing level since 2007 and only the second breach of 5% since the 2008 financial crisis. The selloff persisted despite the Treasury Department buying back $5.2 billion of long-dated debt. Inflation concerns were driven by energy-market disruptions linked to the Iran war, tariff effects and elevated fuel costs. Brent crude rose as much as 4% to nearly $110 a barrel, although wholesale fuel prices later eased after President Trump signaled that Russia and Ukraine would halt strikes on energy infrastructure. Heavy corporate borrowing for AI investment, widening fiscal deficits and expected hawkish policy from the European Central Bank and Bank of Japan added pressure to bonds. Money markets priced in a 25-basis-point Federal Reserve rate increase on Wednesday, which would be the Fed's first since 2023, while some investors anticipated three increases in total. Higher yields pressured technology shares and could raise government, household and corporate borrowing costs, while potentially constraining debt- and equity-financed AI spending.

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