Zelenskyy offers energy truce as ceasefire odds rise to 24.5%

  • Zelenskyy offered to halt Ukrainian strikes and pursue an energy truce with Russia.
  • 22% to 24.5%: Ceasefire odds by December 31, 2026, increased in recent activity.
  • U.S.-mediated diplomacy continues, while Russia has not formally proposed the truce.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Ukraine is prepared to halt strikes and pursue an energy truce with Russia if Moscow takes reciprocal action. The proposal would stop attacks on energy infrastructure and is being discussed as diplomatic efforts continue through the United States. The Kremlin has said the idea was previously discussed but not formally proposed. Market pricing for a ceasefire by December 31, 2026, rose from 22% to 24.5%, a move that appears consistent with increased expectations for an agreement by the end of 2026. The announcement remains a preliminary de-escalation gesture rather than a formal peace agreement. Future developments may depend on statements or actions by U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin, formal Russian responses, U.S. mediation, and any OSCE or United Nations announcements on observer missions or resolutions.

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