Markets have sharply shifted toward a Federal Reserve rate increase at the September 15–16 Federal Open Market Committee meeting, with CME FedWatch pricing a 92.5% probability of a 0.25 percentage-point hike on September 14, up from a freeze-dominated outlook a week earlier. Stronger-than-expected core inflation, oil prices above $100 per barrel and a record U.S. diesel price above $6 per gallon have driven the change. A move from 3.50%–3.75% to 3.75%–4.00% would be the first increase since July 2023. The decision would put Fed Chair Kevin Warsh in tension with U.S. President Donald Trump, who has demanded lower rates and said U.S. rates must be the lowest in the world. Higher borrowing costs could also worsen the affordability issue ahead of the midterm elections, where Republicans must retain their congressional majority. Analysts warn that a hike could challenge the political relationship between Trump and Warsh, while a freeze could raise questions about the Fed’s resolve to contain inflation and its independence.