Democratic Texas state Rep. James Talarico has opened leads over Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton in polling and Kalshi’s Texas Senate election market, while the Austin-based Texas PAC donated more than $53.8 million to Paxton’s campaign and reserved more than $51 million in advertising. Kalshi prices Talarico at 54% to win against Paxton at 46%, and a SoCal Strategies poll shows Talarico leading 50% to 45%; an AARP survey previously showed a 48%-44% Talarico lead. The spending follows Paxton’s earlier financial disadvantage, when Talarico reported more than $21.5 million on hand versus less than $1.8 million for Paxton. President Donald Trump has reiterated support for Paxton and promised to campaign for him, while Paxton’s 2023 impeachment remains a central issue. Kalshi separately gives Democrats a 55% chance of retaking the Senate, compared with 45% for Republicans.