Russia-Ukraine strikes challenge energy truce as wheat falls on Black Sea hopes

  • Russia and Ukraine exchanged overnight strikes despite Trump’s proposed energy-infrastructure truce and the Kremlin’s positive response.
  • Wheat fell toward $7.12 per bushel, while ceasefire pricing by December 31, 2026, declined from 23.5% YES to 22% YES.
  • Ukraine made de-escalation conditional on reciprocal Russian action as Turkey pursued a Black Sea shipping deal and U.S.-mediated settlement talks remained stalled.

The Kremlin backed Donald Trump’s proposal for Russia and Ukraine to halt attacks on energy infrastructure, but overnight strikes challenged Trump’s assertion that the sides had agreed to the truce. Ukraine said it would pursue de-escalation only with reciprocal Russian action, while Turkey sought a broader deal to stop attacks on Black Sea shipping. Hopes for improved grain flows helped push wheat toward $7.12 per bushel, its lowest level in three weeks, while prediction-market pricing for a ceasefire by December 31, 2026, fell from 23.5% YES to 22% YES. The Kremlin also called for sanctions on Russian energy supplies to be lifted, and USDA forecasts indicated slightly above-average global wheat inventories while reducing 2026/27 export forecasts for Russia and Ukraine.

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