Saudi pipeline outage and Hormuz uncertainty lift oil supply concerns

  • An attack halted much of Saudi Arabia’s East-West Pipeline, intensifying concerns over oil supplies and shipping routes.
  • South Korean refiners secured more than 90% of normal September and October crude needs, while Saudi Arabia supplied 34.1% of imports as of July.
  • Seoul is considering strategic reserve swaps, larger alternative-crude freight subsidies and an extension of its refined-fuel price ceiling.

Oil prices remained above $100 a barrel after an attack halted much of Saudi Arabia’s East-West Pipeline, while reduced shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and continuing Red Sea security threats heightened concerns over Middle Eastern supplies. Brent rose above $105, West Texas Intermediate topped $101 and Dubai crude reached $123.66 a barrel, up 21.3% in one week; separate market snapshots placed Brent at $106.64 and WTI at $102.34, while WTI was around $102 on the 14th, about 20% above a month earlier. The pipeline provides Saudi Arabia with an alternative route from Persian Gulf facilities to Yanbu on the Red Sea, avoiding Hormuz. It can carry up to 7 million barrels a day, and Saudi Arabia had been using it to reroute roughly 4 million barrels a day, although reported recent throughput ranged from 2.6 million to 5 million barrels a day. Repairs were expected to take three to five weeks or several weeks, with partial operations possible. The immediate attacker remained disputed: Saudi Arabia blamed drones launched by Iranian-backed militias in Iraq, while other reporting cited Houthi forces or Iraq-linked drones. South Korean refiners had secured more than 90% of their normal crude requirements for September and October, limiting immediate disruption, but cargoes arranged in September could affect imports from November if the outage persists. Saudi Arabia supplied 34.1% of South Korea’s crude imports as of July. Seoul reactivated strategic reserve swaps, is considering raising alternative-crude freight support from 25% to 100%, and is increasingly likely to extend its domestic refined-fuel price ceiling. The ceiling, introduced on March 13 with about 4.2 trillion won ($3 billion) allocated for an assumed six-month program, has contributed to estimated refiner losses of about 5 trillion won ($3.6 billion).

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