Iran’s heightened military activity and U.S. sanctions have sharply reduced oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz, intensifying concerns about global supply shortages. China’s oil throughput increased in August as fuel exports rebounded, adding to market focus on demand and supply pressures amid the Iran conflict. Prediction-market pricing puts the chance of crude oil reaching a new all-time high by December 31 at 16.5%, up from 14% 24 hours earlier and 10% a week earlier. The market had priced a 1.9% chance of a new record by September 30. OPEC’s response, developments in the Strait of Hormuz, Middle East events and changes to production quotas could influence the outlook. OPEC Secretary General Mohammad Sanusi Barkindo, IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol and Saudi Energy Minister Abdulaziz bin Salman Al Saud are monitoring the conflict’s implications for oil markets. The analysis is offered through Vera’s live prediction-market service.