Indian rupee steadies near 96 as RBI intervention offsets Fed and oil pressures

  • The Indian rupee rose 0.1% to 95.8725 per dollar after seven consecutive declines.
  • Kalshi priced a 25-basis-point Federal Reserve increase at 87% on Sept. 15.
  • Federal Reserve traders also priced another rate increase for December.

The Indian rupee steadied at 95.8725 per dollar on Wednesday, Sept. 16, rising 0.1% after settling at 95.9550 in the previous session and reaching its weakest level in more than one month. Three traders said state-run banks were offering dollars, likely on behalf of the Reserve Bank of India, as elevated oil prices and expectations of a Federal Reserve rate increase continued to pressure the currency. The rupee had declined about 1.5% over seven sessions and broken below the 95.80 level that traders regarded as an RBI-supported floor, leaving it vulnerable to a sustained break below 96. Kalshi pricing put the probability of a 25-basis-point Fed increase at 87% as of Sept. 15, up from about 30% on Aug. 27, while traders had also begun pricing another increase in December. The Fed was due to release its updated Summary of Economic Projections, including its dot plot, with its policy statement. Chair Kevin Warsh's recent preference for limited guidance left investors focused on the projections and the number of dissenting votes for indications of the policy path. Brent crude eased to $107.82 a barrel after an unexpected increase in U.S. crude inventories, while the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield retreated after exceeding 5%. Bitcoin and ether extended declines after the U.S. Senate voted against comprehensive cryptocurrency legislation backed by Trump.

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