Global 10-year yields hit decades-high levels as oil revives inflation fears

Sep 15, 2026 07:47 (38d ago)

Benchmark 10-year yields surged across the United States, United Kingdom, Japan, Germany and France, reaching multi-decade highs in each market.
Oil remained above $100 a barrel amid Middle East supply disruptions, intensifying inflation concerns while heavy government debt issuance increased pressure on sovereign bonds.
Markets priced a 90% probability of a 25-basis-point Federal Reserve hike, expected a Bank of Japan increase, and forecast Brazil’s Selic rate to fall to 13.75% from 14%.

Benchmark 10-year government bond yields surged across the United States, United Kingdom, Japan, Germany and France, with levels reaching 2007 highs in the United States and United Kingdom, a 1996 high in Japan, a 2009 high in Germany and a 2008 high in France. Renewed Middle East hostilities and oil above $100 a barrel have revived inflation concerns, while heavy government issuance is adding to a broad sovereign-bond selloff and repricing of fiscal and monetary risks. Markets priced a 90% probability of a 25-basis-point Federal Reserve increase, expected a 25-basis-point Bank of Japan increase to 1.25%, and forecast Brazil’s Selic rate to fall to 13.75% from 14%.