The Bank of England is widely expected to keep its benchmark rate at 3.75% at its September 17 meeting, but Goldman Sachs and Citigroup now forecast renewed tightening from November after revising earlier expectations that rates would remain unchanged throughout 2026. Goldman expects a 6-3 hold in September followed by a 25-basis-point increase to 4% in November. Citi sees a November hike and another in February 2027. The shift reflects oil prices above $100 per barrel amid the escalating Middle East conflict, UK CPI inflation accelerating to 2.9% in July from 2.6% in June, and resilient economic activity. Markets have nearly fully priced a November increase, although Bank of America and ING still expect rates to remain unchanged because of cooling labor conditions, slower wage growth and limited evidence of second-round inflation. The Bank of England may also reduce quantitative tightening (shrinking the central bank balance sheet) from £70 billion to £50 billion for October 2026 to September 2027. The September statement and vote distribution will be closely watched for evidence of the central bank's inflation stance.