Treasury yields top 5% as Fed resists pressure to buy bonds

  • The 10-year Treasury yield reached 5.04%, its highest level since 2007, despite expanded Treasury debt buybacks.
  • Markets priced a 92.4%-92.7% probability of a 25-basis-point Fed hike to a 3.75%-4.00% target range.
  • Analysts said the Fed would likely buy bonds only if auctions failed or markets entered severe distress, citing inflation and central-bank independence.

Surging U.S. government bond yields are raising borrowing costs and intensifying debate over Federal Reserve policy, but analysts see little prospect that the central bank will buy Treasuries at the Trump administration's request absent severe market distress. The 10-year yield reached 5.04%, its highest level since 2007, despite Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's expanded debt buybacks. Markets expected the Fed to raise its policy rate by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4.00%, a move that could eventually support lower long-term yields by reinforcing its inflation-fighting credibility. Large-scale bond purchases could calm distressed markets but risk undermining Fed independence, conflicting with the 2% inflation target and expanding the Fed's $6.7 trillion balance sheet, which Chairman Kevin Warsh wants to reduce.

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