Memory shortages may persist through 2031 as AI demand expands

  • Yorkville launched the NRAM memory ETF as Citi forecast prolonged global shortages through 2031 amid expanding AI demand.
  • Citi forecasts HBM bit demand of 75.157 billion Gb in 2027, up 62% year over year, and 126.990 billion Gb in 2028.
  • New capacity is unlikely to close the near-term gap: Citi sees DRAM supply-demand ratios of -8.7% in 2027 and -9.7% in 2028, while Yorkville expects factory relief around 2028 or 2029.

Yorkville America Equities launched the Yorkville America Next Generation Memory Index ETF (NYSE:NRAM) with Micron as its largest holding, while Citi projects the global memory semiconductor market could remain in supply shortage through 2031. Both outlooks point to AI demand outpacing additions of HBM, DRAM and NAND capacity, although Yorkville’s CEO Steve Neamtz expects meaningful new-factory relief only around 2028 or 2029 and Citi sees supply-demand deficits continuing through at least 2028. Citi forecasts AI demand for HBM, server DDR5 and enterprise SSDs to accelerate from 2027 as systems move from conventional training and inference toward continuous learning, in which models train autonomously. The bank projects HBM bit demand of 75.157 billion Gb in 2027, up 62% year over year, followed by 126.990 billion Gb in 2028, while DRAM demand growth is expected to exceed supply growth. Neamtz said major suppliers have already committed their 2026 HBM output and that HBM requires roughly three times the manufacturing capacity per gigabyte of conventional memory. Citi interprets proposed reductions in memory specifications per accelerator as a response to constrained supply rather than weaker demand. Micron CEO Sanjay Mehrotra said supply should improve gradually in 2028 but that the company lacked a line of sight on when it would meet demand. Micron represents 16.5% of NRAM’s index, followed by SanDisk at 14.4% and SK Hynix at 14.1%.

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