Bank of America sees S&P 500 at 7,400, below bullish 2026 forecasts

  • Bank of America raised its S&P 500 target to 7,400 for year-end while warning that the market is overdue for a pullback.
  • Goldman Sachs and Citigroup project S&P 500 levels of at least 8,000 by the end of 2026, compared with BofA's 7,400 forecast.
  • The index has had one 5% pullback this year and no correction of 10% or more since last spring, as other brokerages remain divided over the outlook.

Bank of America expects the S&P 500 to reach 7,400 by the end of the year, up from its previous 7,100 target but about 2% below the index's Tuesday close. Its 12-month target of 7,800 implies about 3% upside. BofA says the market is overdue for a pullback because of stubborn inflation, higher-rate expectations, seasonal weakness in September and October, and uncertainty over artificial intelligence. The bank remains bullish longer term because of solid consumer and jobs conditions. Other brokerages are more optimistic about the index through 2026, with Goldman Sachs and Citigroup targeting 8,000 or higher on expectations that AI-driven earnings and corporate profits will offset the short-term economic effects of the war in Iran, although inflation and disruptions to global energy flows remain risks.

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