LNG benchmark hits three-year high as Qatar outage intensifies Asia-Europe competition

  • Northeast Asia’s LNG benchmark reached its highest level since January 2023 as Qatar-related supply disruptions tightened the market.
  • Asia’s September LNG imports are forecast at 20.09 million tons, the lowest September estimate since 2018, while North Asian spot prices reached $26.00 per mmBtu.
  • Europe is increasing LNG purchases with EU storage about 68% full, while QatarEnergy expects 12.8 million tons of annual capacity to remain unavailable for three to five years.

Northeast Asia’s LNG benchmark reached $27.765 per million British thermal units, its highest level since January 2023, while Asia’s September imports are forecast at an eight-year low as high spot prices deter buyers. The Japan-Korea Marker November futures contract rose 30.85% in a month and 71.55% in six months, and North Asian spot LNG reached $26.00 per mmBtu in the week ended September 11, up 150% from $10.40 before the US-Iran war. Damage at Qatar’s Ras Laffan facility is expected to keep 12.8 million tons of annual capacity unavailable for three to five years, while only 70,000 tons exited the Strait of Hormuz in August versus a 6.51 million-ton three-month average. Kpler expects Asian September imports at 20.09 million tons, compared with 22.27 million tons a year earlier, as Europe increases LNG purchases and EU storage remains about 68% full, 16 percentage points below its five-year average. The squeeze could raise South Korean wholesale electricity costs with about a one-month lag and increase the financial burdens of KEPCO and KOGAS, even if retail tariffs remain frozen.

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