Indian rupee risks falling past 96 as Fed hike and oil prices weigh

  • Indian rupee traders expect further weakness as a Federal Reserve rate hike approaches.
  • 1.5%: The rupee has declined across seven consecutive sessions despite central-bank intervention.
  • 95.80: Tuesday’s break below the RBI-supported level exposed the currency to further losses.

The Indian rupee is expected to open marginally weaker on Wednesday and could fall below 96 per dollar after settling at 95.9550 on Tuesday. The currency has weakened for seven consecutive sessions, losing about 1.5% despite near-daily intervention by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI). Its decline accelerated after it broke below 95.80, a level traders viewed as an RBI-supported floor, while a sustained break of 96 could deepen losses. Interest-rate futures now imply more than a 90% probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike, up from about 60% a week earlier, as Brent crude moves toward $110 a barrel and U.S. yields reach multi-year highs. With the hike largely priced in, investors are expected to focus on the Fed’s updated dot plot (official interest-rate projections), economic forecasts and Chair Kevin Warsh’s comments on oil, inflation and the policy path. Goldman Sachs said the Fed may seek to discourage overly confident pricing of an October hike, potentially through Warsh’s press conference rather than the policy statement.

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