New South Wales collected A$631.1 million ($449.7 million) in residential stamp duty (tax on property transactions) in August, down 24% from a year earlier as sales volumes fell 18%. The result was the lowest monthly intake since the COVID-19 pandemic and the third consecutive monthly decline, well below the nearly A$1.1 billion peak reached late last year. The state expects a A$5.3 billion reduction in stamp duty receipts over the next four years, while Barrenjoey chief rates strategist Andrew Lilley estimates home-sale receipts will fall 28% this year, reducing state revenue by about A$2 billion. Higher borrowing costs, proposed federal tax changes that ended generous discounts for new property investors, and expectations of further Reserve Bank of Australia rate increases have weakened demand. National house prices have fallen nearly 4% from their peak, with Sydney and Melbourne down more than 7%, while property sales are 15% below a year earlier. Economists are increasingly forecasting a 10% peak-to-trough national decline, and HSBC sees a 13% fall if rates rise twice more. An unexpected 135% increase in non-residential stamp duty, supported by data centres and renewable energy projects, partly offset the August shortfall.