South Korea's household debt-to-nominal GDP ratio is projected to fall below the government's 80% target by the end of this year, a milestone originally set for 2030. The decline is being driven by a denominator effect (a ratio falling as its denominator grows): nominal GDP has surged on the semiconductor export boom, while household debt has continued to increase. The Bank of Korea's Monetary Policy Board expects the ratio to fall below 80%, but officials caution that it remains high relative to major economies and could rebound if housing-driven loan growth accelerates. Household debt was 2,374.1 trillion won at the end of Q1 and is estimated at about 2,404.9 trillion won at the end of Q2. Higher base rates are increasing interest costs, delinquency rates are rising, and household income growth is lagging corporate profitability. Official Q2 flow-of-funds data are due on October 7, followed by BIS debt statistics on December 7, allowing a more precise assessment of the decline and the timing of the government's target.