Polymarket sees 60% chance of higher S&P 500 open as Fed decision looms

  • Polymarket’s September 16 S&P 500 contract priced a higher open at 60%.
  • 92.5% rate-hike odds preceded the Federal Reserve’s 2 p.m. ET decision.
  • September 15’s contract resolved Down after SPY, QQQ and DIA closed lower.

U.S. stock futures moved higher early Wednesday as investors awaited the Federal Reserve's interest-rate decision and assessed whether concerns about an artificial-intelligence slowdown were easing. Polymarket (listed as CRYPTO: POL), a prediction market for event outcomes, priced a 60% chance that the S&P 500 would open higher on September 16. Dow Jones futures rose 0.15%, S&P 500 futures gained 0.16%, Nasdaq 100 futures advanced 0.20% and Russell 2000 futures increased 0.12%. Brent crude fell 0.66% to $108.03 a barrel and West Texas Intermediate crude declined 1.08% to $104.69 after recent gains. Senator Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) cited a Congressional Budget Office estimate that the U.S.-Iran conflict has cost the Department of Defense nearly $40 billion and accounted for nearly half of U.S. inflation. Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) criticized President Donald Trump for blaming Ukraine for high diesel prices. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), the Federal Reserve's rate-setting panel, was scheduled to announce its decision at 2:00 p.m. ET, while the CME FedWatch tool put the odds of a rate hike at 92.5%. Earnings were due from Lennar Corporation, LuxExperience B.V. and Seabridge Gold Inc. Technology strategist Luke Lango said fears of an AI slowdown had cooled after the All-In Summit, where technology leaders opposed the pace of regulation and reaffirmed capital-spending plans. He highlighted Broadcom Inc. CEO Hock Tan's confirmation that 2027/2028 guidance remained untouched by slowdown concerns and urged investors to focus on companies' actions rather than their statements. The previous September 15 Polymarket contract settled Down with $53,343 in trading volume, while SPY, QQQ and DIA all closed lower.

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Polymarket sees 60% chance of higher S&P 500 open as Fed decision looms - CoinPost Terminal