Won-dollar rate breaks above 1,370 won as oil surge revives U.S. inflation concerns

  • Won-dollar rate rose 9.2 won to 1,368.6 won after exceeding 1,370 intraday.
  • WTI settled at $101.39 and Brent at $105.68 amid Middle East tensions.
  • Foreign investors sold 1.6825 trillion won of KOSPI shares on the 16th.

The USD/KRW exchange rate rose 9.2 won, or 0.67%, to 1,368.6 won at 3:30 p.m. on the 16th, after reaching an intraday high of 1,372.9 won. It opened at 1,364 won and crossed the 1,370 won level for the first time since the 2nd. The move followed a 12.1-won gain to 1,359.4 won on the 15th, as Middle East tensions pushed oil prices higher and reignited concerns that inflation could remain elevated. October WTI futures settled at $101.39 a barrel and November Brent futures at $105.68 on the 14th, while the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield briefly exceeded 5% for the first time since October 2023. U.S. August core CPI rose 2.4% year over year and 0.3% month over month, while supercore services inflation increased 0.51% from the previous month. The combination of renewed inflation pressure, expectations for a prolonged Federal Reserve tightening stance, higher Treasury yields and safe-haven dollar demand is supporting the exchange rate. Foreign investors also sold approximately 1.6825 trillion won of South Korean equities on the KOSPI on the 16th, adding to dollar demand as domestic dollar-selling flows from semiconductor-related ADR transactions weakened. Markets expect the rate to remain in the mid-to-upper 1,300-won range, although a move toward 1,400 won cannot be ruled out if oil prices, yields and the dollar rise further. Semiconductor recovery expectations, corporate share buyback-related dollar conversions and potential yen strength could limit the exchange rate's advance.

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