10-year bond yields hit decades-high levels across five major economies

  • Benchmark yields surged across the United States, United Kingdom, Japan, Germany and France.
  • Oil above $100 a barrel has intensified inflation concerns before this week’s central bank meetings.
  • Japan’s debt exceeds 200% of gross domestic product, increasing exposure to higher borrowing costs.

Benchmark 10-year government bond yields surged across five major economies, with the United States and United Kingdom reaching levels last seen in 2007, Japan touching a level unseen since 1996, Germany climbing to its highest point since 2009, and France reaching a level not seen since 2008. Oil above $100 a barrel has revived inflation fears ahead of a cluster of central bank meetings, while renewed Middle East hostilities have pushed crude prices higher. Heavy government debt issuance is adding to the supply pressure, contributing to one of the broadest bond selloffs in years and lifting yields to levels Bitcoin has never experienced since its creation. Japan is particularly exposed because its debt exceeds 200% of gross domestic product, while analysts identify France as the most vulnerable among major economies. State Street Investment Management senior fixed income strategist Masahiko Loo said sovereigns combining large fiscal deficits, high debt burdens and dependence on external capital are most exposed, with France standing out among developed markets. Traders are assigning high odds to a Federal Reserve rate hike this week, which could either stabilize or extend the global selloff. The synchronized move reflects a broader repricing of sovereign risk and inflation expectations, with the next phase dependent on central bank responses.

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