The S&P 500 historically delivered muted but generally positive performance during Federal Reserve tightening cycles involving at least five rate hikes, according to Carson Group Chief Market Strategist Ryan Detrick. His review of 12 post-World War II cycles found positive total returns in 72.7% of them, with a median annualized return of 5.6%. LPL Research reached a similar conclusion, finding a median 12-month S&P 500 gain of 10.7% after an initial rate increase across six tightening cycles since 1994, although stocks often experienced turbulence during the first four months. LPL said hikes alone do not typically derail bull markets unless recession risks are also rising. The historical analysis comes as CME FedWatch prices in a 92.5% probability of a 25-basis-point increase at Wednesday's Federal Open Market Committee meeting, which would raise the target range to 3.75%-4.00%. Economists remain divided over whether the move would begin an extended cycle. Moody's Economist Mark Zandi warned that the risk of a serious policy mistake is rising, while Ebury Head of Market Strategy Matthew Ryan expects a one-and-done hike and said Fed Chair Kevin Warsh may keep the next move unclear. Trade Nation Senior Market Analyst David Morrison said 10-year Treasury yields above 5% reflect repricing tied to sticky inflation and heavy government debt issuance. The S&P 500 was up 10.60% year to date in 2026, compared with gains of 11.82% for the Nasdaq Composite and 7.67% for the Dow Jones. Major index-tracking ETFs closed lower on Tuesday.