Brent crude opened September 16 at $108.34 per barrel, up $1.77 from the previous morning and roughly $40 above its level at the same point last year. The benchmark has climbed more than 50% from its summer lows, suggesting a broader repricing rather than a brief price spike. The most significant recent supply disruption has been the closure of Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline, which carries oil from the Eastern Province to export terminals on the Red Sea. Houthi forces struck the infrastructure, halting exports that would normally use the route. An escalating US-Iran conflict has also made tanker transit in the region hazardous, with vessel attacks adding a risk premium to oil moving through contested waters. Analysts tracking the situation estimate that each additional month of disruption at the current severity could add $7 to $8 per barrel to Brent. US crude inventories rose by 7.1 million barrels in the latest weekly report, exceeding most market participants’ expectations, but prices showed little reaction. The inventory build offered limited support to sentiment without changing the market’s focus on Middle East supply risks. A prolonged oil surge would complicate central banks’ efforts to control inflation because energy costs have a significant effect on headline inflation. Policymakers must assess whether the increase is a temporary shock or a persistent input into their economic models. Traders are watching whether the East-West pipeline returns to service and how quickly. A rapid restoration of Saudi export capacity could weigh meaningfully on prices, while a prolonged outage or further attacks on infrastructure would support projections for Brent to reach $115 or higher within the next month.