Fed seen 92% likely to deliver 25-basis-point hike on Sept. 17

  • Federal Reserve is expected to raise rates by 25 basis points on Sept. 17.
  • Federal funds futures imply about a 92% probability of the increase.
  • Jiang Zhuoer expects Warsh to speak at 2:30 a.m. after the decision.

The Federal Reserve is expected to raise its target interest-rate range by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4.00% at 2 a.m. Beijing time on Sept. 17, with federal funds futures implying about a 92% probability of the move. The central bank will release its dot plot (official rate projections) after the decision. Jiang Zhuoer, founder of the BTC.TOP mining pool, expects the 2026 median forecast to indicate two rate increases in total, meaning one further hike after the expected move. He says that outcome could pressure markets in the short term. The biggest uncertainty, he says, will be the speech by Federal Reserve Chair Warsh beginning at 2:30 a.m., which he expects could carry a dovish signal.

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