Yardeni cuts year-end S&P 500 target to 7,900 from 8,400

  • Ed Yardeni lowered his year-end S&P 500 target from 8,400 to 7,900.
  • The 10-year Treasury yield reached 5.041%, its highest level since 2007.
  • The Federal Reserve raised rates 25 basis points to 3.75%-4%, its first hike since 2023.

Ed Yardeni, President of Yardeni Research, reduced his year-end S&P 500 target by 500 points to 7,900, implying a 4.61% gain from Wednesday’s close of 7,551.81. He cited elevated Treasury yields and rising energy prices, which he said have increased the risk of a downturn over the next three to six months. The 10-year Treasury yield reached 5.041%, a 2007 high, while Brent and WTI crude rose more than 20% in a month to above $100 a barrel. Yardeni lowered the probability of his bullish "Roaring 2020s" scenario to 70% from 80% and raised the probability of a bearish outcome to 30% from 20%, while retaining his 2027 earnings forecast of $425 per S&P 500 share and his end-of-decade target of 10,000. He remains constructive on stocks over the long term but advises investors to proceed with caution. Tom Lee remained more bullish, while Peter Schiff warned that 5% Treasury yields could lead to 6% or higher. Capital Economics sees risks from a potential artificial-intelligence bubble, and the Federal Reserve’s 25-basis-point rate increase to 3.75%-4% could initially pressure equities, according to Jeremy Siegel.

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