The Federal Reserve is set to announce its September interest rate decision on Wednesday, September 16, at 9:00 p.m. Turkish time, after leaving rates unchanged at 3.5%-3.75% in July. Markets assign a 93% probability to the first rate increase since July 2023, while Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan and Morgan Stanley expect a 25-basis-point hike. The Kobeissi Letter said the Fed has always raised rates when market expectations reached similar levels in data going back to 2008. Analysts say an unchanged decision would represent the biggest dovish surprise at a scheduled policy meeting since 1994, although they also note the unusual policy setting surrounding Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh, who was appointed by President Trump with the expectation that he would cut rates. Warsh is scheduled to speak at 9:30 p.m. Turkish time. Ahead of the decision, cryptocurrency investors have reduced risk exposure and moved toward stablecoins (cryptocurrencies designed to maintain stable value). Talos data reported by CoinDesk showed a 28% net buying trend in stablecoins, compared with an average 8% net selling trend before previous FOMC meetings. Net buying in Bitcoin fell from 10% to 3%, while Ethereum declined from 23% to 9%. The data indicates a preference for more liquid, relatively lower-risk assets while investors await both the decision and Warsh's guidance on future policy. Market participants are also focused on where accumulated capital moves after the announcement.