Bitcoin has risen after only two of the past 14 Federal Reserve decisions, but on-chain analyst Ali Martinez says a surprise decision to hold rates could push the cryptocurrency from $75,000 above $82,000. Polymarket traders put the probability of a 25-basis-point hike at 89%, with about $193 million traded on the outcome. JPMorgan Chase outlined five potential scenarios for the S&P 500, ranging from a 0.5% to 1% gain if the Fed hikes while signaling an unwinding of 2025 cuts, to a 1.25% to 1.75% decline if it holds rates. The bank said Warsh's 2:30 p.m. ET press conference could matter more than the rate decision itself. Macro analyst Robin Brooks expects a dovish hike, which he said could steepen the yield curve, weaken the dollar and lift gold. The outlook comes after the CLARITY Act failed Tuesday, removing one of Bitcoin's two main near-term catalysts.