Markets assign a 55% probability to the Federal Reserve keeping its policy rate unchanged at 3.75%-4.00% at the October meeting, compared with a 45% probability of another 25-basis-point increase. Pricing puts the chances of a 25-basis-point cut at about 4%, a rate increase of 50 basis points or more at about 2%, and a cut of 50 basis points or more at about 1%. The near-even split follows the Fed’s 25-basis-point hike in September. The dot plot published after that meeting indicated that another increase could remain under consideration before year-end. An earlier CME FedWatch snapshot had shown a 59.5% probability of an October hold and a 40.1% probability of a 25-basis-point hike; it also put the December probabilities at 16.7% for maintaining the 3.75%-4.00% range, 54.0% for cumulative 25-basis-point increases, 28.9% for cumulative 50-basis-point increases and 0.3% for cumulative 75-basis-point increases.