Clarity bill passage odds plunge from 82% to 16% after Senate defeat

Sep 16, 2026 21:10 (38d ago)

The U.S. Senate rejected the Clarity bill, according to the report.
82% to 16% was the reported decline in the bill’s passage probability.
Bernstein analysts said SEC and CFTC rulemaking would take the lead.

The Clarity bill’s rejection by the U.S. Senate has sharply reduced its prospects for passage during the current congressional session. StoneX put the probability of enactment at 16%, down from 82%. Bernstein analysts led by Gautam Chugani said regulatory authority would shift toward the SEC (U.S. securities regulator) and CFTC (U.S. derivatives regulator), which they expect to focus on developing specific rules after negotiations over the legislation.