Hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve’s September meeting have shifted markets and Wall Street toward further tightening after a 25-basis-point increase, the first since 2023, lifted the benchmark target range to 3.75%-4.00%. Prediction markets assign a 46.5% probability to another 25-basis-point increase at the October 2026 meeting, up from 38% a day earlier, versus 54% for no change. NatWest and Swedbank expect an October hike, Standard Chartered and Commerzbank forecast one in December, and Morgan Stanley projects two further increases by the first quarter of 2027. Goldman Sachs added an October hike and moved its projected rate cuts to September and December 2027 and March 2028. Other banks, including ING, SEB and Citi, view the September increase as the final move in the cycle. Investors are focused on inflation, employment data, Federal Reserve communications and political developments, while President Trump criticized the increase without similarly targeting Chair Kevin Warsh, according to The New York Times.