BOJ hike bets rise as yen weakens and JGB risks mount

  • The BOJ is expected to raise its benchmark rate from 1.0% to 1.25% on Sept. 18.
  • The yen fell about 4 yen in 10 days to the low 156s per dollar, while Japan’s 10-year yield reached 3%.
  • Eight of 10 Japanese foreign-exchange specialists expect renewed yen weakness by year-end despite possible further BOJ hikes.

The Bank of Japan is widely expected to raise its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points from 1.0% to 1.25% when its two-day meeting concludes on Sept. 18, with the meeting opening on Sept. 17. The increase would be the BOJ’s sixth since ultra-loose policy ended in 2024, its second this year and its highest policy rate since 1993, although newer coverage describes the level as a 31-year high. Persistent inflation, resilient wages, yen weakness, higher producer prices and rising oil costs have strengthened the case for tightening, but the yen has still fallen about 4 yen in 10 days from the 152s to the low 156s per dollar after the Federal Reserve raised rates and signaled further tightening. Eight of 10 Japanese foreign-exchange specialists expect renewed yen weakness by year-end, citing the wide U.S.-Japan rate gap, higher oil prices and Japan’s worsening trade balance. Meanwhile, Japan’s 10-year government bond yield has reached 3% for the first time in 30 years, increasing unrealized losses and potential writedowns for banks, even as higher rates have widened lending margins and lifted profits.

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