U.S. 10-year Treasury yield tops 5%, putting global stocks on red alert

  • The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield briefly topped 5% before retreating toward 4.94%, which Christopher Wood called a red alert for global stocks.
  • A 10-year TIPS auction produced a 2.653% real yield, while a 20-year Treasury auction reached a record 5.420% awarded yield.
  • U.S. bond funds recorded net inflows for 71 consecutive weeks, led by short-duration funds, as markets assessed inflation, fiscal borrowing and further rate hikes.

The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield briefly exceeded 5%, reaching a 19-year high before retreating to about 4.94%, prompting Christopher Wood, Jefferies Global Head of Equity Strategy, to call the level a red alert for global stocks. The move reflected worsening U.S. fiscal conditions, persistent inflation, higher government and corporate borrowing, oil-market risks and expectations for further central-bank tightening. The Treasury market posted historically weak returns, although elevated yields attracted new buyers, particularly into short-duration funds. Investors continued to monitor softer oil prices, Saudi Arabia’s efforts to resume East-West pipeline flows, a possible meeting between President Donald Trump and Gulf leaders, and the Federal Reserve’s 25-basis-point rate increase, described in the newer account as its first hike in three years. Wood favored gold-related assets and advised existing Bitcoin holders against selling hastily as a currency-debasement hedge.

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