The Bank of England held Bank Rate at 3.75% in a 6-3 Monetary Policy Committee vote on September 17, with Megan Greene, Huw Pill and Catherine Mann seeking a 25-basis-point increase to 4%. Governor Andrew Bailey said higher energy costs had yet to spread materially into UK wages and prices, though prolonged Middle East-related volatility could embed inflation. Inflation reached 3.1% in August, while the average five-year mortgage rate rose to 5.87%, its highest level since November 2023, as lenders priced in the prospect of tighter policy. The Bank raised its third-quarter growth forecast to 0.4% from 0.1% and said inflation could rise somewhat above 4% in early 2027. The MPC unanimously approved a revised quantitative-tightening framework to unwind £488 billion of gilts by end-2034 at an average pace of £46 billion a year, including £20 billion of annual active sales, while retaining £120 billion of ultra-long gilts for banknote issuance and pausing gilt auctions for six months. Barclays and J.P. Morgan forecast rate increases in November 2026 and February 2027, while Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley retained more cautious scenarios. Markets priced a 63% chance of a November hike, according to LSEG data.