Emerging Asian currency bearishness deepens as Philippine peso shorts hit four-month high

  • Investors increased bearish positions against most emerging Asian currencies.
  • Philippine peso short positions reached their highest level in over four months.
  • The poll covered nine currencies and included positions held through NDFs.

Bearish positioning toward most emerging Asian currencies intensified as investors faced higher oil prices after attacks on Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline and rising U.S. Treasury yields that strengthened the dollar. The Philippine peso remained the most shorted currency in the Reuters poll, with bearish bets reaching their highest level in more than four months, although MUFG said long-dollar positions against the peso offered less attractive risk-reward. Short positions also increased against the Thai baht, Indian rupee and Malaysian ringgit. MUFG said Malaysia’s electronics trade surplus could offset a larger energy import bill and saw scope for ringgit strength. Sentiment toward the Indonesian rupiah improved after President Prabowo Subianto replaced the finance minister with the deputy finance minister, despite the rupiah’s 6% decline this year. Investors reduced bullish positions in the Taiwan dollar, Singapore dollar and Korean won. The survey covers nine Asian emerging-market currencies and measures estimated net positions from minus 3 to plus 3, including exposure through NDFs (non-deliverable currency forwards).

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