Iran’s Hormuz blockade keeps oil above $100 as JPMorgan abandons war baseline

  • Iran continued restricting tanker traffic after two ships were attacked in the Strait of Hormuz, while JPMorgan said it could no longer model the war’s endgame.
  • Brent traded near $106 a barrel and US diesel reached a record $6.31 a gallon; JPMorgan estimates an additional potential loss of 4 million barrels per day beyond 10 million already disrupted.
  • Fighting resumed within weeks of June’s interim agreement, with Trump weighing renewed large-scale operations or an end to the war as supply outages, weaker demand and regional risks shape markets.

Two ships were attacked in the Strait of Hormuz as Iran continued restricting tanker traffic, intensifying its maritime conflict with the United States and keeping crude near $106 a barrel after a four-month high. JPMorgan abandoned its baseline view of the war, saying it could no longer model how it would end after oil above $100, gasoline near $5 and the 10-year Treasury yield above 5% failed to pressure President Donald Trump toward a deal reopening the strait. An interim agreement reached in June was followed by renewed fighting within weeks, and the conflict has entered its seventh month, although some accounts describe it as a six-month war depending on the reference point. Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline remained offline after a drone strike originating in Iraq, while Iran-allied Houthi militants advanced in the southern Red Sea. Supply disruptions have been partly offset by demand running about 4.4 million barrels per day below last year’s level and reserves in China, Europe, Japan and South Korea, but JPMorgan warned prices could rise as inventories thin. Combined crude and refined-product stocks have fallen about 555 million barrels, Brent has averaged $94 since February 28, US diesel reached a record $6.31 a gallon, and the average US pump price was $4.32 as of Monday.

The information on this website is generated using AI and we cannot guarantee its accuracy. Please use it as reference information only.