Fed raises benchmark rate to 3.75%-4%; bitcoin remains below $80,000

  • The Federal Reserve raised its benchmark rate by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4.00% on Sept. 16, 2026, citing elevated inflation and solid economic growth.
  • Fed projections put the median rate at 4.1% in both 2026 and 2027, while CME FedWatch showed 54.2% odds of another increase on Oct. 28.
  • Bitcoin recovered after falling below $76,000 but remained below $80,000 as CoinShares cited restrictive Fed policy and the Senate's 49-50 rejection of H.R. 3633.

The Federal Reserve raised its benchmark interest-rate range by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4.00% on Sept. 16, 2026, its first increase since July 2023, citing elevated inflation and solid economic growth. The move may raise costs for credit cards and other variable-rate debt while improving returns on high-yield savings accounts and certificates of deposit, with effects varying among indebted borrowers, savers, fixed-rate borrowers and people on fixed incomes. Grayscale Head of Research Zach Pandl said the increase, and potentially one or two further 2026 hikes, represented a mid-cycle adjustment rather than a return to the broad tightening cycle that began in March 2022. CoinShares research lead James Butterfill said the Fed's higher projected rate path matters more than the hike itself and makes a decisive Bitcoin move above $80,000 unlikely in the near term. The median rate forecast for 2026 and 2027 rose to 4.1% for both years, from 3.8% and 3.6%, respectively, in June. Bitcoin initially fell below $76,000 before recovering but remained below $80,000, while Ether traded near $2,445. The Senate also rejected a procedural motion on the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act, or H.R. 3633, by 49-50 on Sept. 15, leaving the bill stalled and adding pressure particularly to altcoins.

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