Trump weighs Iran military action as 2026 deal odds fall

  • President Donald Trump said he was considering potential military action or strikes against Iran.
  • Prediction markets lowered the odds of a 2026 U.S.-Iran agreement involving reconstruction funding and uranium-enrichment limits.
  • U.S. stock futures rose while markets priced a 53.1% probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike after October's meeting.

President Donald Trump said he was considering a significant decision on potential military action against Iran, increasing concern over its nuclear activities and the broader Middle East conflict. Prediction-market pricing indicated lower odds of a 2026 U.S.-Iran agreement involving Iran Reconstruction Funding and limits on uranium enrichment. U.S. stock futures nevertheless rose, while crude oil fell, gas prices increased and markets assessed elevated borrowing needs, technology investment and the prospect of a Federal Reserve rate hike after its October meeting. Industrial production data for August was scheduled for release at 9:15 a.m. ET.

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