Goldman Sachs lowered its third-quarter Tesla delivery forecast to 435,000 vehicles from 490,000, leaving it below both the 456,000 Visible Alpha consensus and the roughly 480,000 level implied by Kalshi prediction-market trading. Analyst Mark Delaney kept a Neutral rating and a $360 price target. Kalshi yes shares for Tesla exceeding 480,000 deliveries traded at 57 cents Thursday, putting the market midpoint at least 45,000 vehicles above Goldman’s estimate. Kalshi traders were also closer than Goldman ahead of Tesla’s second-quarter report: Tesla delivered 480,126 vehicles, more than 60,000 above Goldman’s June estimate and about 74,000 above the broader consensus. Goldman’s latest forecast reflects weaker sales across the United States, China and Europe, although growing export markets supplied by Tesla’s Shanghai factory could provide an offset. Tesla’s second-quarter deliveries also exceeded production by about 28,000 vehicles, helped by an inventory drawdown, meaning a similar result could require higher production or another drawdown. Tesla has not announced its third-quarter delivery date.