Russia's federal budget deficit is expected to reach around 2% of gross domestic product in 2027, President Vladimir Putin said at a government meeting on economic issues on September 17. The projection is based on an extremely cautious oil-price assumption of about $50 per barrel, below a survey forecast of $56 for Russia's taxable crude price in 2027. Putin said higher global oil prices could lift oil and gas revenues in the coming months and help replenish the National Wealth Fund, the country's fiscal buffer. The new federal deficit outlook exceeds the 1.3% projection in the previous 2026-2028 budget framework and comes as the government prioritizes social commitments, citizen safety and defense spending. A survey of 33 institutions put the 2027 consolidated-budget deficit, which includes regional governments and off-budget funds, at 2.6% of GDP. The government forecasts 1% GDP growth in 2026, compared with market expectations of 0.5% for 2026 and 1.2% for 2027. The Bank of Russia held its policy rate at 14% in September and warned that a larger structural deficit could require tighter monetary policy for longer.