JP Morgan said it lacks a clear baseline for oil markets for the first time since the start of the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran, saying the conflict's endgame is difficult to model. Oil has risen above $100 a barrel, while gasoline costs $4.37 a gallon and U.S. diesel has reached a record $6.31 ahead of winter, when seasonal demand peaks. The bank values September Brent, the global crude benchmark, at about $90 a barrel versus prices near $106, indicating that markets are pricing in possible additional supply losses beyond the estimated 10 million barrels per day already disrupted. Risks include threats to shipping through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, attacks affecting Saudi export routes, and continuing strikes on Russian refining infrastructure and Ukrainian cities. Prices have been restrained by weaker demand and smaller inventory drawdowns: global crude and refined-product stocks have declined by about 555 million barrels since the conflict began, roughly one-third of JP Morgan's earlier projection, while demand is about 4.4 million barrels per day below year-ago levels. Brent has averaged $94 since the conflict began. The International Energy Agency said global supply and demand could fall more than previously expected this year, while OPEC still forecasts demand growth and expects an increase of 380,000 barrels per day in 2026 despite cutting its outlook for a fifth consecutive month. JP Morgan said inventories in China, Europe, Japan and South Korea provide a buffer for now, but warned that persistent Middle East disruptions could push prices higher later this year as stocks fall and the market relies increasingly on demand destruction (reduced consumption to restore balance).