Two ships were attacked in the strategically important Strait of Hormuz, intensifying the ongoing maritime conflict between the United States and Iran as President Donald Trump considers potential military action. The waterway is a critical chokepoint for global energy transit and has been the site of recent tit-for-tat strikes. Market pricing indicates that the likelihood of a U.S. invasion of Iran before the end of 2026 rose slightly, with YES odds increasing from 16% to 16.5%. Observers will focus on President Trump’s decisions and statements, as well as actions by the Pentagon (U.S. Defense Department headquarters) and U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth. Further maritime incidents, diplomatic initiatives and government or military announcements could help determine whether tensions escalate or ease.