JPMorgan has abandoned its baseline view of the Iran conflict, saying it can no longer model how the war will end. The conflict began on February 28 and has entered its seventh month, after a June interim agreement was followed by renewed fighting within weeks. The bank had expected oil above $100 a barrel, gasoline near $5 a gallon and the 10-year Treasury yield above 5% to pressure President Donald Trump toward a deal reopening the Strait of Hormuz. All three thresholds have now been crossed, while oil trades near $106 a barrel and diesel has reached a record $6.31 a gallon. JPMorgan estimates Brent’s September fair value at about $90, with the gap suggesting markets are pricing the potential loss of roughly 4 million barrels per day beyond the 10 million barrels per day already disrupted. A damaged Saudi East-West pipeline and advances by Iran-allied Houthi militants in the southern Red Sea have added uncertainty, while Trump is weighing whether to resume large-scale military operations against Iran or end the war. Prices have been contained by weaker demand, which is running about 4.4 million barrels per day below last year’s level, and by available reserves in China, Europe, Japan and South Korea. Combined crude and refined-product inventories have fallen by about 555 million barrels, roughly a third of JPMorgan’s earlier forecast, while Brent has averaged $94 since the conflict began. JPMorgan says prices could rise if outages persist and reserves thin. The International Energy Agency has cut its 2026 supply and demand forecasts and projects a 5.7 million-barrel-per-day decline in global oil supply this year. In the United States, fuel costs are adding to inflation and political pressure, with the consumer price index 3.4% above a year earlier and the average pump price at $4.32 a gallon as of Monday.