Fed nears final overhaul of bank stress tests, plans to average results for capital buffers

  • Federal Reserve will consider final reforms to its large-bank stress-testing framework.
  • Averaging two annual tests would reduce stress capital buffer volatility by half.
  • Michelle Bowman outlined confidential supervisory scenario analysis beyond capital requirements.

The Federal Reserve will consider final revisions to its stress-testing framework in the coming weeks, Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman said, seeking to make the process more transparent, predictable and risk-sensitive after years of criticism and legal challenges. The reforms would require detailed disclosure of the models used to estimate bank losses and revenues, including equations, variables, coefficients, assumptions, limitations and decision-making rationale, while also expanding information about how hypothetical scenarios are designed. The Fed plans to calculate each large bank's stress capital buffer by averaging its two most recent annual stress-test results, an approach Bowman said would reduce volatility by half without materially changing aggregate capital requirements. The effective date would move from October 1 to January 1 of the following year. The Board is also expected to consider a revised noninterest-income model for the 2027 test and, before the end of the year, finalize reforms to risk-based capital requirements and the surcharge for global systemically important banks. Beyond capital requirements, Bowman outlined a future supervisory program using confidential scenario analysis, comparisons with banks' internal tests and reverse stress testing to identify firm-specific financial and nonfinancial vulnerabilities. Those forward-looking exercises would not affect capital requirements or be made public.

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