Japan and BOJ conduct rate check after 1.25% hike as yen weakens

  • Japan and the BOJ conducted a rate check after the yen weakened despite the BOJ raising its policy rate to 1.25%.
  • The yen rose more than ¥1 in about an hour, moving from the upper ¥157 range to the mid-¥156 range.
  • Economists see further rate increases but estimate the terminal rate at 1.5% to 2% amid inflation, oil-price and growth risks.

The Bank of Japan raised its policy rate from around 1.0% to 1.25%, a 31-year high and the highest short-term rate since 1995, but the yen weakened toward ¥158 per dollar after two policy board members opposed the decision. Japanese government officials and the BOJ then conducted a rate check, an inquiry into exchange-rate levels viewed as preparation for possible yen-buying intervention, prompting the yen to rise more than ¥1 from the upper ¥157 range to the mid-¥156 range. Economists expect further quarterly increases, with terminal-rate estimates ranging from 1.5% to 2%, while the BOJ weighs weak economic activity, a weak yen, higher crude-oil prices, fiscal concerns and core inflation of 1.7% in August, below its 2% target for an eighth consecutive month. The move also coincided with Japanese companies beginning to raise prices, signaling a change in corporate behavior.

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